This Sunday, March 2, marks the 86th year of Academy Awards which honor the best films from the past year, hosted by Ellen Degeneres. Half of the fun of the Oscars is guessing who will take home the golden statues, and then arguing endlessly about who actually deserved it. So in keeping with that tradition here are our predictions for this year’s winners, along with who should win.

Best Picture

American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Should Win: Her

Will Win: Gravity

Best Director

David O. Russell, American Hustle; Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Matthew McConaughey

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle; Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Should Win: Sandra Bullock

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Jared Leto

Will Win: Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Best Original Screenplay

Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club; Spike Jonze, Her; Bob Nelson, Nebraska

Should Win: Her

Will Win: Her

Best Adapted Screenplay

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight; Billy Ray, Captain Phillips; Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena; John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave; Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Should Win: Before Midnight

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

• Tag: Academy Awards, Ellen Degeneres, Oscars